Scenario Modeling
Scenario Modeling allows the user to simulate multiple customized scenarios at the same time. The IPR/VLP curve, forecast, and economics under different scenarios is displayed to the end user.
In this screen, a user can compare the best scenario out of the configured scenarios and the base case scenario and compare the estimated additional production gain if we were to implement the best scenario on field.
A user can create a what-if scenario to compare the well performance with various lift method types to select the optimum scenario.
After creating one scenario, a user can copy the existing scenario and make updates based on it.
The following dashboard shows scenario modeling settings:
- Base case forecast – For comparison purposes a duration for forecast needs to be defined here. For this scenario, the current production method is continued for given duration.
- Base Case Natural Flow – This is a natural flow scenario with the following additional settings defined:
- Initial installation cost – This is initial completion setup and well placement cost for this method.
- Reinstallation cost – after the current method fails, this represents the workover and recompletion cost for this method.
- Operation cost – Operational cost that is required to produce the well using this method.
- Run days – expected days of production from this method.
- Base Case Gas Lift – This is a Gas lift production scenario with the following additional settings defined:
- Initial installation cost – This is initial completion setup and well placement cost for this method
- Reinstallation cost – after the current methods fails, this represents the workover and recompletion cost for this method.
- Operation cost – Operational cost that is required to produce the well using this method.
- Run days – expected days of production from this method.
- ESP Lift – This is an ESP scenario with the following additional settings defined:
- Initial installation cost – This is initial completion setup and well placement cost for this method.
- Reinstallation cost – after the current method fails, this represents the workover and recompletion cost for this method.
- Operation cost – Operational cost that is required to produce the well using this method.
- Run days – expected days of production from this method.
- Rod Pump – This is an SRP scenario with the following additional settings defined:
- Initial installation cost – This is initial completion setup and well placement cost for this method.
- Reinstallation cost – after the current method fails, this represents the workover and recompletion cost for this method.
- Operation cost – Operational cost that is required to produce the well using this method.
- Run days – expected days of production from this method.
Gas lift design and configuration can be found under Scenario Modeling Module. By clicking on the three-dot on the right of an existing scenario, gas lift configuration settings can be found.
Base Case Gas Lift – This is a Gas lift production scenario with the following additional settings defined:
- Initial installation cost – This is initial completion setup and well placement cost for this method.
- Reinstallation cost – after the current methods fails, this represents the workover and recompletion cost for this method.
- Operation cost – Operational cost that is required to produce the well using this method.
- Run days – expected days of production from this method.
ESP Lift – This is an ESP scenario with the following additional settings defined:
- Initial installation cost – This is initial completion setup and well placement cost for this method.
- Reinstallation cost – after the current method fails, this represents the workover and recompletion cost for this method.
- Operation cost – Operational cost that is required to produce the well using this method.
- Run days – expected days of production from this method.
Rod Pump – This is an SRP scenario with the following additional settings defined:
- Initial installation cost – This is initial completion setup and well placement cost for this method.
- Reinstallation cost – after the current method fails, this represents the workover and recompletion cost for this method.
- Operation cost – Operational cost that is required to produce the well using this method.
- Run days – expected days of production from this method.
Users can create a PI uplift scenario under the Scenario Modeling module.
Adding a new scenario opens the page above, where users can customize the scenario settings.
The PI restoration setting allows users to change the percentage PI uplift to apply to the scenario forecast. The PI will be forecasted following the original decline predicted at the cumulative volume observed where the PI is equal to current + uplift.
After saving the case, the IPR/VLP curve will be recomputed to visualize the PI uplift as well as the ∆NPV.
The abandonment constraints can be set up under the settings of Advisor→ Scenario Modeling, which is scenario specific.
After clicking on the settings, the following page shows up.
The abandonment section allows users to set up abandonment gas rate, liquid rate, oil rate, water rate, and minimum bottomhole pressure.
The scenario modeling base case settings are in Model Quality→Model Settings→Advisor Scenario Modeling.
On the right-hand side of the dashboard, the following settings for base case scenario modeling can be set.
These base case settings will be applied to base case for all wells, which includes base case economic inputs, runtime assumptions, and forecast duration.
Cashflow settings can be applied at the well level or a specific scenario.
The settings under Copilot→Gas Lift is applied to all wells.
After clicking on the settings, the following page shows up with oil and gas price, water handling cost, and gas buyback cost.
The settings under Advisor→ Scenario Modeling are applied to a specific scenario when created.
After clicking on the settings, the following page shows up.
Scrolling down the settings page, the economic settings including discount rate, gas buyback cost, gas price, oil price, and water handling cost can be customized.
